International relations experts are cautioning that China’s response to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Taiwan statements will likely extend beyond the current tourism advisories and cultural restrictions, with countermeasures implemented gradually and secretly over an extended period. Professor Liu Jiangyong of Tsinghua University’s international relations department indicates that Beijing’s strategy involves rolling out responses “one by one” rather than implementing all pressure tactics simultaneously.
The pattern established thus far supports this assessment. The crisis began with travel advisories citing alleged safety concerns for Chinese nationals in Japan, followed by postponed film releases, cancelled entertainment events, and continued enforcement of seafood import bans. Concerns are mounting about potential restrictions on rare earth exports, which are critical to Japanese automotive production and other industries and which China has previously leveraged successfully against even the United States during trade disputes.
The economic stakes are substantial, with economist Takahide Kiuchi projecting losses of approximately $11.5 billion from reduced tourism alone. China was on track to reclaim its pre-pandemic position as Japan’s largest source of international tourists, with over 8 million Chinese visitors in the first ten months of this year representing 23% of all arrivals. Small businesses throughout Japan are already experiencing significant impacts, with traditional cultural experiences seeing mass cancellations extending months into the future.
The diplomatic crisis was triggered by Takaichi’s characterization of potential Chinese military action against Taiwan as a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan that could necessitate military involvement. While the Prime Minister has clarified that she was responding sincerely to hypothetical questions and maintains commitment to positive bilateral relations, China’s foreign ministry continues to demand retraction of what Beijing terms “erroneous remarks” and explicit reaffirmation of Japan’s commitment to the “One China” principle.
International relations expert Sheila A. Smith, author of “Intimate Rivals,” a book on Japan-China relations, observes that the diplomatic challenge for both sides stems from domestic political constraints. Leaders in both countries face pressure not to appear weak before their respective domestic audiences, creating a situation where neither can easily back down. Historical precedents suggest that such disputes often require leadership changes to fully resolve, as new leaders are not burdened by the baggage of previous statements, leaving the current crisis without a clear path to de-escalation in the near term.
